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The PGA tour continues this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Florida. The Arnold Palmer invitational is an event that has appearing on the schedule every year since 1979. With a prize pool of $20 million the event is the 4th of 8 “signature events” in the PGA calendar.
With a big prize pool comes a big name field the 55 strong field includes all the top players on the tour with Tony Finau the only eligible player not in the field. The course itself is a par-72 measuring 7,454 yards featuring Bermudagrass greens. When the wind picks up the course can play extremely difficult but is still a tough test regardless of whether there is wind or not.
Strong driving is a good place to start when deciding where the winner will come from. Shorter hitters have gradually faded from the winners’ circle as driver-wedge is much more appealing than driver-mid iron, especially at Bay Hill.
While its easy to look at Rory McIlroy, my value pick for this event is Sam Burns. At 305.7 yards average driving distance he is ranked 27th on tour and just 5 yards off the top 5. His scoring average is 7th on tour this season and when things do go wrong, he has the best scrambling stats on tour at 77.46%. With all this in mind its no surprise that he finished in the top 10 or better in his last 4 events. At 29.0 on 3et he is great value.
Prediction: Sam Burns @29.0 on 3et
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